Tyro Trader's Analysis - July 29

Our PSE is really in a world of its own. Almost all markets were down last Friday and yet our index was up. DOW also closed by almost another 100 points at the back of the lingering debt crisis. Aug 2 is the critial date for all markets since that's when the decision will be made whether or not to increase US' debt ceiling.

I noticed though that most of the stocks i've been following are technically heading towards the tail end of consolidation or are about to make their respective big moves. Could the Aug 2 decision actually be the trigger?

Semirara Mining (SCC) closed last Friday with a long tail (i.e. closing price was way above its lows) and in the process respected its uptrend line. Huge volume also signifies that alot of sellers were absorbed by willing buyers especially when it hit the P223 low. Note though that the DMI did set off a sell signal. As such, we will need to see a follow thru buying on Monday in order to negate the sell signal and confirm that P223 is the short term low. If indeed it does rally, P240 would be the next resistance.

Lopez Holdings (LPZ) proceeds to trade within the symmetrical triangle. Last Friday's movement actually hit the top and low end of the triangle's tightening apex. Big move continues to approach us. Just have your stops in place in case it goes south.

Robinsons Land Corp (RLC) continues to respect the uptrend line of its ascending triangle formation. Its just sitting a tad below its immediate resistance of P13.44 then followed by P14.00. We see the DMI also pointing opposite each other (refer to the green and yellow lines) which suggests that the uptrend will continue.

Aboitiz Power (AP) also continues with its own ascending triangle. We're also almost at the tip of the pattern with P33 being the critical price to break. If broken with volume, we could be looking at its 52 week high of P36.90 as the next resistance.

Good luck with your trades as always!

All charts courtesy of citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.

Tyro Trader's Analysis - July 28

Our PSE index today just flexed its resilient muscle. Despite the DOW Jones being down by around 1.5%, our market was apathetic and practically remained unchanged. All we need now is a catalyst, like a triple digit DOW move to the upside, to trigger a rally of our own.

In my July 22 blog entry, I mentioned that Aboitiz Equity Venture (AEV) was on my watchlist because of the symmetrical triangle it was forming. Since then, MACD is no longer pointing down and has flattened. Possible big move coming?

Lopez Holding (LPZ) also continues with its symmetrical triangle formation. DMI already gave a buy signal today signifying that it is about to enter an uptrend. This will be confirmed once we see prices break past P6.00 with good volume.

Vista Land (VLL) continues to conslidate its gains. It seems to be well supported in the P3.35 to P3.37 range. I'd probably give this a few more days of consolidation before it resumes its uptrend. Just observe the volume until that point when it has dried up which would signifies the absence of sellers. Next resistance could already be its 52 week high of P3.68 then possibly P4.00 afterwards.

Megaworld (MEG) seems to be hesitating in the P2.23 to P2.24 level; which is also its channel's resistance line. Prices might need to consolidate a bit in order to fall back within the bollinger band. For now, I'd let it establish a basing pattern in order to consolidate its previous gains before entering or adding up to existing positions.

Good luck with your trades as always!

All charts courtesy of citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.

Tyro Trader's Analysis - July 27

PSE finally moved up today after four days of decline. 4450 will now act as our short term support.

Lopez Holding Corp (LPZ) continues to be in my watchlist. Notice that its nicely forming a symmetrical triangle. MACD, Bollinger Bands and DMI (not shown) indicators point to consolidation but stochastics (which normally gives off the earliest trigger) signalled a buy today. Could the Lopez stocks (LPZ / MER / FGEN / FPH) be the next rotational play? If one were to enter this stock, buy within the triangle; cutloss if it drops below the triangle (exact price would depend on your position size & risk appetite) or let your profits run if it breaks above it. Given the small range of the triangle, risk should be minimal at this point.

One of the lagging stocks in the property sector finally made a move today. Sta Lucia Realty (SLI) is on the verge of breaking out from a six month downtrend. Notice that the price closed exactly at the resistance line today. The following factors tend to favor a breakout:
> Huge volume today which means that alot of sellers were already absorbed by willing buyers.
> MACD is about to cross up the zero line which suggests that an uptrend is about to take place.
> DMI (green line pointing up / yellow line pointing down) is also suggesting that a trend is about to commence.

Semirara Mining (SCC) proceeded to correct today. Notice yesterday that it had a huge volume turnover but price range was very restricted; PhP1.00 to be exact - telltale sign of distribution. Broker Macquarie (code 121) kept on buying though. If one were to enter or re-enter this stock, a safe price would be near 224 which is right about along its uptrend line support and near its previous breakout point. Just have your stops ready in case its correction becomes deeper.

Aboitiz Power (AP) continues to nicely respect its uptrend line. Its correction from its P33 high last week was a needed respite to relax its overbought stochastics; which incidentally is now pointing up again. Could it finally break past P33 in this run. Volume today was just on the low side for my comfort though.

Good luck with your trades as always!

All charts courtesy of citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.

Tyro Trader's Analysis - July 22

PSE continued to correct last July 22 but the property sector bucked the trend. 

One of the stocks that led the sector was MEGaworld. It was able to break passed its 6 months down trendline and with volume to boot. MACD indicator is about to trigger a buy signal( i.e. cross up in both the histogram and zero line). Momentum is definitely building up here. Looking at the one year down trend line; next resistance would be around the 2.30 to 2.32 range. If one were to enter now, cutloss points could be set at 2 or at 1.90 at most depending upon your position size and risk appetite.

I took profits from my positions in SCC as it formed a doji star (i.e. opening price is the same as closing price). A doji star suggests indecision amongst traders. Whether the uptrend does reverse or continue will be confirmed based on Monday's price action. Note as well that its price has been outside the bollinger band the passed four days which suggests that a pullback to within the band is bound to happen (i.e. Accdg to John Bollinger, creator of the Bollinger Band indicator, prices stay within the band 88-89% of the time). Will re-evaluate after Monday on when I'll consider re-entering this stock.

Another stock showing indecision is VLL which closed the day with a spinning top. Unlike SCC though, I maintained my position in this since properties could be the new play. It's runup also is just a day old so it may still have some more room to go. Notice as well that today's 3.32 low is a few cents from the one year downtrend line (and also the breakout point) currently pegged at 3.29. This pivot price point could possibly serve as a new short term support and a good entry price.

Good luck with your trades as always!

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.
 

Tyro Trader's Analysis - July 21

VLL finally made its big move after a long consolidation. Good thing it was up! Huge volume accompanied its ascent although there were alot of crosses by Deutsche. Nonetheless, price movement is still king. Could already be eyeing a new 52 week high?

SCC also continues to breakaway from its previous pivot point. Its now possibly targeting to surpass its one year high. RSI though is nearing overbought conditions so a pullback could just be around the corner.

LPZ's hammer closing today looks further enticing for me. Possibly building momentum to finally trample passed its 3 month downtrend line? MACD and STS though still need some work. Minimal risk at this point though if one were to put a cutloss price at around 5.55 to 5.60 level.

ELI's uptrend resumed today as it was able to find ample support at the P0.80 level.

Other stocks that continue to be in my radar are:
FPH - MACD about to cross up 0 line with PhP62.00 seeming to hold. Vol is also on the rise the past 3 days.

AEV - Symmetrical triangle nicely forming. Bollinger band also tightening which suggests an impending big move soon.

Good luck with your trades as always!

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.

Tyro Trader's Analysis - July 19

After 6 days of continuous ascent (with one ceiling at that), PWR finally succumbs to profit taking. Other basuras followed suit. Could the rotation finally be shifting back to the blues?

One of my most favorite setups are fundamentally sound stocks which have been constructively consolidating for sometime.We've seen this happen in my previous analysis of LC which incidentally powered higher today.

AT right now is nicely consolidating since its run up from 17. Based on its current range, 23 is acting as support while 24.40 is the resistance.
Break the resistance with volume and we might see a continuation of its uptrend. Closed today at 24 with a whopping 1.6M on the buy side.

VLL is also consolidating in an even narrower range. Notice that the bollinger band has further tightened suggesting an impending huge move. Whether its up or down is anyone's guess. Very minimal downside risk at this point though. If VLL does breakout of its range, initial resistance would be at 3.30 then 3.60. If it breaks down though, cutloss points could be pegged at 3.10 then followed by 3.00

From my previous analysis of SCC, it has continually respected its pivot point and has now followed thru on its gains. Based on its movement today, we're looking at a possible upside of 245. MACD is healthily pointing up and moving away from the zero line to support this.

LPZ continues to consolidate below its resistance line. A couple of encouraging signs though:
1) Dragonfly doji formation today suggests that it may attempt again to build momentum to take out resistance line.
2) A higher low was formed. 5.55 was the first low; 5.72 was the second low. This was the setup I was looking for in my previous LPZ analysis.
3) Stochastics starting to point up

Good luck with your trades as always!

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.