Tyro Trader's Analysis - Aug 23

PSE closed strong today. Although this can be partially attributed to TEL going ex-cash tomorrow thus lots of buyers scooping up shares in order to be entitled to the divs. Nonetheless, TEL along with some blues closed at their highs. This enabled our index to come knocking on the short term downtrendline. DMI looks encouraging as we seem to be gathering some upward momentum. Hopefully this run will enable our index to move back within the 6 month uptrend line. Notice as well that alot of basura stocks (i.e. BHI / BSC / WPI / UNI / ZHI) closed at their lows while some even broke below their short term support lines. Are all these signs that rotational play is finally going back to blue chips?

For the past few days all I've been doing are quick trades in basuras and I also used only a portion of my capital just to mitigate my risk. Managed some gains in BSC,WPI,ZHI while had to quickly cutloss in UNI. Honestly, I still prefer trading more stable and predictable blues and second liners. Less exciting than basuras but less stressful as well. C'mon PSE lets get back within the uptrend line!

Tyro Trader's Analysis - Aug 16

Our index continues to trek a higher after filling the gap. As of this writing though, the DOW is in the red. This could be seen as a healthy pullback considering its massive rally the past 3 days. If the DOW does end down, it could possibly serve as an added excuse for PSE to have a pullback of its own considering we've also gone up for 5 days in a row. As this week, I've managed to rebalance a bit of my portfolio -- lessening my exposure in blue chips and venturing into fairly quick (for my standards, at least) trades and speculative plays. Will maintain this stance until prices start moving above short term MAs and MACD crossing above zero line.

Yesterday, East Asia Power Corp (PWR) broke out of its symmetrical triangle. Today however, it closed with a shadow. If prices do continue to drop, the breakout could've been simply a bull trap. MACD does look a bit encouraging though as the buy line is already pointing up. All we need is cross up to strenthen the resumption of its breakout.

Waterfront Philippines Inc (WPI) also did its own symmetrical triangle breakout. Unlike PWR though, WPI closed with a nice looking hammer today albeit on lower volume. P0.60 could serve as its short term support while having P0.77 - P0.79 as the next major resistance.

Good luck with your trades!

All charts courtesy of citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.

Tyro Trader's Analysis - Aug 12

Our index has been going up the past 3 days. Last Friday though, it did close with a bearish looking shooting star pattern. This shows that some investors took advantage of the rally by unloading their positions while some who went bottomfishing begun taking proftis. If you'll notice in the charts, the 3 day rally really just filled the gap that was formed when the index gapped down last Aug 9. It also allowed prices to normalize within the bollinger band. The big question now is, are we going to consolidate within a range (between 4,360 and 4,130) or was this rally just a dead cat bounce and we're en route to further declines? Don't really know the answer to that as of yet. In case you want to trade this very uncertain market, you have the aforementioned price points as your range.

Good luck with your trades!

Chart courtesy of citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same

Tyro Trader's Analysis - Aug 10

DOW finally rebounded from way oversold conditions. Unfortunately, the damage has been done to our PSE. Looks like my previous bearish assumption was that assumed by the market; that we won't be seeing our previous high anytime soon.

All this volatility has resulted in stocks gapping down and gapping up left and right. Given the erratic behaviour of most stocks, I still find it difficult to ascertain patterns in their charts. For the aggressive trader, this erratic market can still be traded albeit just for quick punts. Just look for the gaps to be covered afterwhich, I would immediately get out. For the more conservative ones, you could just wait it out until the volatility subsides.

For those caught with positions from the previous highs and consolidations, you could use this rally as a chance to get out, hopefully with still some profits no matter how small, or to just cut your losses. At this point, its still too early to tell whether the rally we had today is already a reversal or just a dead cat bounce. Capital preservation should ideally be one's priority given the market condition that we currently have.

Good luck as always!

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same

Tyro Trader's Analysis - Aug 5

DOW was down by a whopping 500 points. US markets are now negative for the year. Our own PSE lost as much as 159 points before buyers started bidding up prices. In the end we closed the day with a very long tail with some stocks rebounding well off from their lows while some even closing at their highs. I'm currently neutral as to how I see the market. At one point, I am still bullish given our market's behaviour and the presence of still willing buyers. Notice that the intraday rebound actually coincides with a bounce from the 6month uptrend line. On the other hand, I am bearish because of overall global sentiments coupled with our PSE just coming off from its all time high. Appetite for equities could be decreasing resulting in less aggressive traders buying beyond the 4563 high if at all we still reach it.

I was already preparing my sell order (cutloss) for Aboitiz Equity Venture (AEV) when I noticed that volume was increasing and prices were being bid up. In the end, AEV went back within inside its asymmetrical triangle and closed at the triangles top end. Will we still see follow through buying by next week? I'll be assuming a defensive stance for now given how the markets have been behaving by tightening my stops for this.

In an almost similar fashion, Robinsons Land Corporation (RLC) bounced well off its opening price but unlike AEV, it was unable to close within its uptrend line. Notice that prices in the short term as well as volume are already on a decline. Given these factors, I'm now neutral and possibly looking into taking profits if at all a rally presents itself.

From a previous symmetrical triangle that I saw in Lopez Holding (LPZ), I'm now seeing a descending triangle which unfortunately is a bearish formation. Critical support price that needs to hold is P5.60 else, we would already see a continuation of its downtrend which the MACD and DMI are also indicating. There a small gap between 5.60 and 5.65 which could be covered next week. One could take advantage of this gap fill to sell into.

Good luck with your trades!

All charts courtesy of citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.

Tyro Trader's Analysis - Aug 3

With a backdrop of a huge 2.20% DOW decline last night combined with lingering overbought conditions pretty much set the stage for PSE's correction today. Given the depth of today's drop (PSE's biggest in 9 weeks), we might still see a continuation in decline. Next support would probably be near the 4450 recent low.

I find Robinsons Land Corporation's (RLC) behaviour today rather bullish. Notice that it opened way below its uptrend channel which initially signified a trendline break. It closed the day at the highs though which could mean that there were those who took advantage of the stock's low opening and bought it up. For now, we can assume that the uptrend is still intact and hopefully we will no longer see prices going below today's low.

Lopez Holding (LPZ) finally made its move which unfortunately is on the downside. Today, it broke below its symmetrical triangle and triggered simultaneous sell signals from MACD and DMI. I still have a bit of room left before it hits my cutloss price but once hit, execute without question. If its decline accelerates, we're looking at P5.55 as the next possible support.

Aboitiz Power (AP) also broke below its uptrend line. The bulls are struggling to keep it afloat though. Notice the long tails formed the past four days which suggests presence of willing buyers whenever prices do an intraday dip.

During times of correction (actually, make that at all times), ensure that you have your cutloss / trailing stops in place. That way, you'll have ammo again if and when the uptrend resumes.

Good luck with your trades!

All charts courtesy of citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.

Tyro Trader's Analysis - Aug 1

I was out on field the whole day so I won't have an individual stock analysis for today. Got to take a quick peak at our market though and to my surprise, our PSE closed up by 1%, past its previous 4515 high and making a new all time high! I'm just a bit worried though that there seems to be a divergence in RSI relative to the highs set last Nov. Nonetheless, lets just ride out this trend for now and let our profits run. Will also have a close eye on how the Aug 2 decision would pan out.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.