Tyro Trader's Analysis - Aug 3

With a backdrop of a huge 2.20% DOW decline last night combined with lingering overbought conditions pretty much set the stage for PSE's correction today. Given the depth of today's drop (PSE's biggest in 9 weeks), we might still see a continuation in decline. Next support would probably be near the 4450 recent low.

I find Robinsons Land Corporation's (RLC) behaviour today rather bullish. Notice that it opened way below its uptrend channel which initially signified a trendline break. It closed the day at the highs though which could mean that there were those who took advantage of the stock's low opening and bought it up. For now, we can assume that the uptrend is still intact and hopefully we will no longer see prices going below today's low.

Lopez Holding (LPZ) finally made its move which unfortunately is on the downside. Today, it broke below its symmetrical triangle and triggered simultaneous sell signals from MACD and DMI. I still have a bit of room left before it hits my cutloss price but once hit, execute without question. If its decline accelerates, we're looking at P5.55 as the next possible support.

Aboitiz Power (AP) also broke below its uptrend line. The bulls are struggling to keep it afloat though. Notice the long tails formed the past four days which suggests presence of willing buyers whenever prices do an intraday dip.

During times of correction (actually, make that at all times), ensure that you have your cutloss / trailing stops in place. That way, you'll have ammo again if and when the uptrend resumes.

Good luck with your trades!

All charts courtesy of citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.

Tyro Trader's Analysis - July 29

Our PSE is really in a world of its own. Almost all markets were down last Friday and yet our index was up. DOW also closed by almost another 100 points at the back of the lingering debt crisis. Aug 2 is the critial date for all markets since that's when the decision will be made whether or not to increase US' debt ceiling.

I noticed though that most of the stocks i've been following are technically heading towards the tail end of consolidation or are about to make their respective big moves. Could the Aug 2 decision actually be the trigger?

Semirara Mining (SCC) closed last Friday with a long tail (i.e. closing price was way above its lows) and in the process respected its uptrend line. Huge volume also signifies that alot of sellers were absorbed by willing buyers especially when it hit the P223 low. Note though that the DMI did set off a sell signal. As such, we will need to see a follow thru buying on Monday in order to negate the sell signal and confirm that P223 is the short term low. If indeed it does rally, P240 would be the next resistance.

Lopez Holdings (LPZ) proceeds to trade within the symmetrical triangle. Last Friday's movement actually hit the top and low end of the triangle's tightening apex. Big move continues to approach us. Just have your stops in place in case it goes south.

Robinsons Land Corp (RLC) continues to respect the uptrend line of its ascending triangle formation. Its just sitting a tad below its immediate resistance of P13.44 then followed by P14.00. We see the DMI also pointing opposite each other (refer to the green and yellow lines) which suggests that the uptrend will continue.

Aboitiz Power (AP) also continues with its own ascending triangle. We're also almost at the tip of the pattern with P33 being the critical price to break. If broken with volume, we could be looking at its 52 week high of P36.90 as the next resistance.

Good luck with your trades as always!

All charts courtesy of citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.

Tyro Trader's Analysis - July 27

PSE finally moved up today after four days of decline. 4450 will now act as our short term support.

Lopez Holding Corp (LPZ) continues to be in my watchlist. Notice that its nicely forming a symmetrical triangle. MACD, Bollinger Bands and DMI (not shown) indicators point to consolidation but stochastics (which normally gives off the earliest trigger) signalled a buy today. Could the Lopez stocks (LPZ / MER / FGEN / FPH) be the next rotational play? If one were to enter this stock, buy within the triangle; cutloss if it drops below the triangle (exact price would depend on your position size & risk appetite) or let your profits run if it breaks above it. Given the small range of the triangle, risk should be minimal at this point.

One of the lagging stocks in the property sector finally made a move today. Sta Lucia Realty (SLI) is on the verge of breaking out from a six month downtrend. Notice that the price closed exactly at the resistance line today. The following factors tend to favor a breakout:
> Huge volume today which means that alot of sellers were already absorbed by willing buyers.
> MACD is about to cross up the zero line which suggests that an uptrend is about to take place.
> DMI (green line pointing up / yellow line pointing down) is also suggesting that a trend is about to commence.

Semirara Mining (SCC) proceeded to correct today. Notice yesterday that it had a huge volume turnover but price range was very restricted; PhP1.00 to be exact - telltale sign of distribution. Broker Macquarie (code 121) kept on buying though. If one were to enter or re-enter this stock, a safe price would be near 224 which is right about along its uptrend line support and near its previous breakout point. Just have your stops ready in case its correction becomes deeper.

Aboitiz Power (AP) continues to nicely respect its uptrend line. Its correction from its P33 high last week was a needed respite to relax its overbought stochastics; which incidentally is now pointing up again. Could it finally break past P33 in this run. Volume today was just on the low side for my comfort though.

Good luck with your trades as always!

All charts courtesy of citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.