Tyro Trader's Analysis - Aug 5

DOW was down by a whopping 500 points. US markets are now negative for the year. Our own PSE lost as much as 159 points before buyers started bidding up prices. In the end we closed the day with a very long tail with some stocks rebounding well off from their lows while some even closing at their highs. I'm currently neutral as to how I see the market. At one point, I am still bullish given our market's behaviour and the presence of still willing buyers. Notice that the intraday rebound actually coincides with a bounce from the 6month uptrend line. On the other hand, I am bearish because of overall global sentiments coupled with our PSE just coming off from its all time high. Appetite for equities could be decreasing resulting in less aggressive traders buying beyond the 4563 high if at all we still reach it.

I was already preparing my sell order (cutloss) for Aboitiz Equity Venture (AEV) when I noticed that volume was increasing and prices were being bid up. In the end, AEV went back within inside its asymmetrical triangle and closed at the triangles top end. Will we still see follow through buying by next week? I'll be assuming a defensive stance for now given how the markets have been behaving by tightening my stops for this.

In an almost similar fashion, Robinsons Land Corporation (RLC) bounced well off its opening price but unlike AEV, it was unable to close within its uptrend line. Notice that prices in the short term as well as volume are already on a decline. Given these factors, I'm now neutral and possibly looking into taking profits if at all a rally presents itself.

From a previous symmetrical triangle that I saw in Lopez Holding (LPZ), I'm now seeing a descending triangle which unfortunately is a bearish formation. Critical support price that needs to hold is P5.60 else, we would already see a continuation of its downtrend which the MACD and DMI are also indicating. There a small gap between 5.60 and 5.65 which could be covered next week. One could take advantage of this gap fill to sell into.

Good luck with your trades!

All charts courtesy of citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.

Tyro Trader's Analysis - Aug 3

With a backdrop of a huge 2.20% DOW decline last night combined with lingering overbought conditions pretty much set the stage for PSE's correction today. Given the depth of today's drop (PSE's biggest in 9 weeks), we might still see a continuation in decline. Next support would probably be near the 4450 recent low.

I find Robinsons Land Corporation's (RLC) behaviour today rather bullish. Notice that it opened way below its uptrend channel which initially signified a trendline break. It closed the day at the highs though which could mean that there were those who took advantage of the stock's low opening and bought it up. For now, we can assume that the uptrend is still intact and hopefully we will no longer see prices going below today's low.

Lopez Holding (LPZ) finally made its move which unfortunately is on the downside. Today, it broke below its symmetrical triangle and triggered simultaneous sell signals from MACD and DMI. I still have a bit of room left before it hits my cutloss price but once hit, execute without question. If its decline accelerates, we're looking at P5.55 as the next possible support.

Aboitiz Power (AP) also broke below its uptrend line. The bulls are struggling to keep it afloat though. Notice the long tails formed the past four days which suggests presence of willing buyers whenever prices do an intraday dip.

During times of correction (actually, make that at all times), ensure that you have your cutloss / trailing stops in place. That way, you'll have ammo again if and when the uptrend resumes.

Good luck with your trades!

All charts courtesy of citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.

Tyro Trader's Analysis - July 29

Our PSE is really in a world of its own. Almost all markets were down last Friday and yet our index was up. DOW also closed by almost another 100 points at the back of the lingering debt crisis. Aug 2 is the critial date for all markets since that's when the decision will be made whether or not to increase US' debt ceiling.

I noticed though that most of the stocks i've been following are technically heading towards the tail end of consolidation or are about to make their respective big moves. Could the Aug 2 decision actually be the trigger?

Semirara Mining (SCC) closed last Friday with a long tail (i.e. closing price was way above its lows) and in the process respected its uptrend line. Huge volume also signifies that alot of sellers were absorbed by willing buyers especially when it hit the P223 low. Note though that the DMI did set off a sell signal. As such, we will need to see a follow thru buying on Monday in order to negate the sell signal and confirm that P223 is the short term low. If indeed it does rally, P240 would be the next resistance.

Lopez Holdings (LPZ) proceeds to trade within the symmetrical triangle. Last Friday's movement actually hit the top and low end of the triangle's tightening apex. Big move continues to approach us. Just have your stops in place in case it goes south.

Robinsons Land Corp (RLC) continues to respect the uptrend line of its ascending triangle formation. Its just sitting a tad below its immediate resistance of P13.44 then followed by P14.00. We see the DMI also pointing opposite each other (refer to the green and yellow lines) which suggests that the uptrend will continue.

Aboitiz Power (AP) also continues with its own ascending triangle. We're also almost at the tip of the pattern with P33 being the critical price to break. If broken with volume, we could be looking at its 52 week high of P36.90 as the next resistance.

Good luck with your trades as always!

All charts courtesy of citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.