Tyro Trader's Analysis - Aug 5

DOW was down by a whopping 500 points. US markets are now negative for the year. Our own PSE lost as much as 159 points before buyers started bidding up prices. In the end we closed the day with a very long tail with some stocks rebounding well off from their lows while some even closing at their highs. I'm currently neutral as to how I see the market. At one point, I am still bullish given our market's behaviour and the presence of still willing buyers. Notice that the intraday rebound actually coincides with a bounce from the 6month uptrend line. On the other hand, I am bearish because of overall global sentiments coupled with our PSE just coming off from its all time high. Appetite for equities could be decreasing resulting in less aggressive traders buying beyond the 4563 high if at all we still reach it.

I was already preparing my sell order (cutloss) for Aboitiz Equity Venture (AEV) when I noticed that volume was increasing and prices were being bid up. In the end, AEV went back within inside its asymmetrical triangle and closed at the triangles top end. Will we still see follow through buying by next week? I'll be assuming a defensive stance for now given how the markets have been behaving by tightening my stops for this.

In an almost similar fashion, Robinsons Land Corporation (RLC) bounced well off its opening price but unlike AEV, it was unable to close within its uptrend line. Notice that prices in the short term as well as volume are already on a decline. Given these factors, I'm now neutral and possibly looking into taking profits if at all a rally presents itself.

From a previous symmetrical triangle that I saw in Lopez Holding (LPZ), I'm now seeing a descending triangle which unfortunately is a bearish formation. Critical support price that needs to hold is P5.60 else, we would already see a continuation of its downtrend which the MACD and DMI are also indicating. There a small gap between 5.60 and 5.65 which could be covered next week. One could take advantage of this gap fill to sell into.

Good luck with your trades!

All charts courtesy of citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.

Tyro Trader's Analysis - Aug 3

With a backdrop of a huge 2.20% DOW decline last night combined with lingering overbought conditions pretty much set the stage for PSE's correction today. Given the depth of today's drop (PSE's biggest in 9 weeks), we might still see a continuation in decline. Next support would probably be near the 4450 recent low.

I find Robinsons Land Corporation's (RLC) behaviour today rather bullish. Notice that it opened way below its uptrend channel which initially signified a trendline break. It closed the day at the highs though which could mean that there were those who took advantage of the stock's low opening and bought it up. For now, we can assume that the uptrend is still intact and hopefully we will no longer see prices going below today's low.

Lopez Holding (LPZ) finally made its move which unfortunately is on the downside. Today, it broke below its symmetrical triangle and triggered simultaneous sell signals from MACD and DMI. I still have a bit of room left before it hits my cutloss price but once hit, execute without question. If its decline accelerates, we're looking at P5.55 as the next possible support.

Aboitiz Power (AP) also broke below its uptrend line. The bulls are struggling to keep it afloat though. Notice the long tails formed the past four days which suggests presence of willing buyers whenever prices do an intraday dip.

During times of correction (actually, make that at all times), ensure that you have your cutloss / trailing stops in place. That way, you'll have ammo again if and when the uptrend resumes.

Good luck with your trades!

All charts courtesy of citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.

Tyro Trader's Analysis - July 27

PSE finally moved up today after four days of decline. 4450 will now act as our short term support.

Lopez Holding Corp (LPZ) continues to be in my watchlist. Notice that its nicely forming a symmetrical triangle. MACD, Bollinger Bands and DMI (not shown) indicators point to consolidation but stochastics (which normally gives off the earliest trigger) signalled a buy today. Could the Lopez stocks (LPZ / MER / FGEN / FPH) be the next rotational play? If one were to enter this stock, buy within the triangle; cutloss if it drops below the triangle (exact price would depend on your position size & risk appetite) or let your profits run if it breaks above it. Given the small range of the triangle, risk should be minimal at this point.

One of the lagging stocks in the property sector finally made a move today. Sta Lucia Realty (SLI) is on the verge of breaking out from a six month downtrend. Notice that the price closed exactly at the resistance line today. The following factors tend to favor a breakout:
> Huge volume today which means that alot of sellers were already absorbed by willing buyers.
> MACD is about to cross up the zero line which suggests that an uptrend is about to take place.
> DMI (green line pointing up / yellow line pointing down) is also suggesting that a trend is about to commence.

Semirara Mining (SCC) proceeded to correct today. Notice yesterday that it had a huge volume turnover but price range was very restricted; PhP1.00 to be exact - telltale sign of distribution. Broker Macquarie (code 121) kept on buying though. If one were to enter or re-enter this stock, a safe price would be near 224 which is right about along its uptrend line support and near its previous breakout point. Just have your stops ready in case its correction becomes deeper.

Aboitiz Power (AP) continues to nicely respect its uptrend line. Its correction from its P33 high last week was a needed respite to relax its overbought stochastics; which incidentally is now pointing up again. Could it finally break past P33 in this run. Volume today was just on the low side for my comfort though.

Good luck with your trades as always!

All charts courtesy of citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.