Tyro Trader's Analysis - Jan 4

Index breakout!!

PSE jumped almost 1.5% today and followed thru on yesterday's break of the 4,400 resistance line and did so in broad fashion with advancers heavily outgunning decliners. Next stop is the index' all time of 4,550 after which will already be uncharted territory.

After going thru a healthy consolidation while respecting the one year uptrend line, LC continued with its ascent today; closing well off its short term 16day SMA. MACD buy signal is now facing up and looking for a cross up either tomorrow or Friday. Next major resistance is its previous high of 1.82 which when broken will confirm a cup and handle breakout. As long as the one year uptrend line is intact, LC will be a buy the dips.

BDO is another stock that continues to respect its 6 month support line. Looking at the upward channel, we can see a huge potential upside. Cutloss points can be set around 58.50 (16day SMA) just to give enough allowance for volatility in case prices drop below the channel.

MAB managed to hold onto to its gains today after breaking out from a minor consolidation yesterday. Prices in the bigger picture are still within a larger consolidation between .59 and .68. If you were able to buy at around the .59 to .60 level, then you have the option to range trade this and sell near .68 resistance. Just buy back if prices do breakout out of .68 with good volume. Bollinger band is on the verge of narrowing again which suggests that the breakout move from consolidation may happen soon.

ORE tried to breakout today from short term consolidation but hesitated just below its 6 month uptrend line. However, its increased volume + expanding bollinger band + impending MACD zero-line cross up all sum up a possible upside breakout. If you still don't have positions for ORE, buy when prices breakout and move above the uptrend line or if breakout fails, just buy when price goes back to the lower price range.

Good luck with your trades!

All charts courtesy of Citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.

Tyro Trader's Analysis - Jan 2, 2012

Happy new year traders!

Nice way to start the year with our index closing just a tad below the 4,400 resistance line.

Today marks the start of the afternoon trading sessions. I bet some traders are still adjusting their usual afternoon routine given the extended trading hours. Personally though, I still prefer the mornings only session since it minimizes trading lulls moreso since I have a very demanding day job. I'm keeping an open mind though that we'll eventually see an increase in the PSE's trading volume which is always beneficial to any equities market.

DMC continues to power higher after 41 held its ground. With RSI still at a comfortable 69 and prices still within the bollinger band, we're possibly looking at a 43.75 - 44.45 gap fill as early as this week.

MPI is able maintain its upward channel after 3.55 held its ground; MACD however is still sloping downwards so it may consolidate a bit more. At current prices, risk is minimal making it a good candidate for a medium term hold moreso with 65 day SMA already sloping upwards.

One of last year's favorite stock, LC, continues with its consolidation. Looking at the MACD and DMI, it may take awhile before it starts to trend again. Offhand, it may coincide by the time the 6 month uptrend line begins to intersect with current prices.

PSE ended 2011 with a regionally respectable 4.1% gain. Inflation rate on the other hand was last tracked at 4.8% (as of November 2011). Assuming inflation doesn't change until year end, you would've technically lost money had you invested purely on blue chip index stocks. Fortunately, there were lots of 2nd liner, basura and backdoor plays throughout last year which would've greatly helped once portfolio. Hopefully 2012 would be more of a trending year instead of a sideways market so we wouldn't need to rely too much on speculative plays just to beat the index.

Good luck with your trades!

All charts courtesy of Citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.

Tyro Trader's Analysis - Week of Nov 28

I'm back after being sidelined for 4 trading days. Boy did i miss that jumungous worldwide rally last week along with LC's breakout. Zeroing in on LC, notice that Macquarie & 323 already stopped their selling the past 2 days thus augmenting F. Yap's nonstop buying. Looking at the charts, we see a clean uptrend line that's well intact. RSI is still at a manageable 78 while MACD is widening further. With momentum clearly being in LC's side, we can see a test of the previous 1.82 high as early as this week.

PNB was again able to hold the 52.50 fort thus establishing a triple bottom. Having the same behaviour as with LC, Macquarie can also be seen accumulating PNB past 2 days. MACD is also starting to turn. Could we finally see a clean break above 57 this time around? I would be adding to my existing positions in the event that it does.

Having almost the same pattern as PNB but without the triple bottom, SCC can also be seen still trading in a range. I'm quite bullish on the behaviour of both stocks since both are consolidating their respective gains from their September lows. All we need now is a trigger that would break them out of their respective ranges and onward to possibly another uptrend. I already have positions in both with cutloss points set a few flucs below the range support but with a trigger to add further in the event that the resistance is broken convincingly towards the upside.

MPI wasn't able to sustain its uptrend after 3.44 failed to hold. It has instead formed a range with 3.40 acting as new support which is also the 200day SMA. Factoring in MACD pointing down, prices might consolidate for now. This is healthy since prices did already rise 32% from its October low. A strong break above 3.60 though would once again trigger the uptrend. Just hope no more new private placement announcements come into the picture else we might see prices falling back down once again.

Good luck with your trades!

All charts courtesy of Citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.

Tyro Trader's Analysis - Nov 24

Ever since LC brokeout last Nov 17, notice that volume was at a consistent 200+ million while the big guns F Yap, Wealth & Macq were the top net buyers until yesterday. It was only today that 121 began taking profits but 162 and 269 still kept buying. Yesterday's close extended LC beyond outside the bollinger band so it was but natural for it to pullback within it. So is today's movement just a healthy correction in an overall uptrend to test the previous 1.82 high? Possibly, but it would help LC's case if we see a consolidation between 1.48 & 1.56 so as to absorb all the sellers from the previous range.

SCC continued with its consolidation today. Volume picked up though with 323 being the lead buyer. Notice though that all of his sells were cross sales. Sign of accumulation perhaps? We just have to wait and see where the next big move will take us.

MPI closed right smack at the uptrend line support I mentioned yesterday. Either prices hold around this level in order to resume the uptrend or it could just consolidate for now until the next surge towards the 3.74-3.64 gap.

Good luck with your trades!

All charts courtesy of Citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.

Tyro Trader's Analysis - Nov 21

Last Friday, I closed out all my positions in LC. Although it made a higher high again today, it did close with bearish looking shooting star pattern. Was the break above 1.40 just a bull trap? If 1.40 is unable to hold, we might see LC move back within its previous consolidation. If it does hold though, there would be a higher probability that its uptrend would continue.

SCC closed nicely today and off its low. If its able to continue with its ascent in the next few days, 207-208 (which incidentally is the 130day EMA) would be the higher low set up I was looking for relative to 204. Could it finally muster enough momentum to finally break 220 convincingly this time around? I would average up on my positions if 220 is broken but if it holds, I would be a seller. Note that MACD suggests that we're still in consolidation mode.

CPM seems to be slowly gaining volume and momentum. Its 1.91 intraday low (also its 16 day and 130 day MA) was well supported. Next psychological resistance is 2.00 followed by its previous 2.15 high.

PSE was barely able to defend 4,300 today closing .53 below it. MACD however already gave off a sell signal. With euro dropping and futures 3 digits lower as of this writing, we might potentially see PSE following thru on its breakdown by tomorrow. If it does, I would be on the sell side for all my positions in the green to protect profit and further tighten my stops on newly entered positions just to preserve capital. I can always buy again when overall sentiments are better. My strategy would be totally different though if I'm playing purely the 3rd liner / ceiling game. I actually have small positions on some. You'll know your basura positions are too much when you're already losing sleep over it; just keep it manageable and above all, faithfully follow your cutloss points.

Good luck with your trades!

All charts courtesy of Citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.