Tyro Trader's Analysis - Jan 2, 2012

Happy new year traders!

Nice way to start the year with our index closing just a tad below the 4,400 resistance line.

Today marks the start of the afternoon trading sessions. I bet some traders are still adjusting their usual afternoon routine given the extended trading hours. Personally though, I still prefer the mornings only session since it minimizes trading lulls moreso since I have a very demanding day job. I'm keeping an open mind though that we'll eventually see an increase in the PSE's trading volume which is always beneficial to any equities market.

DMC continues to power higher after 41 held its ground. With RSI still at a comfortable 69 and prices still within the bollinger band, we're possibly looking at a 43.75 - 44.45 gap fill as early as this week.

MPI is able maintain its upward channel after 3.55 held its ground; MACD however is still sloping downwards so it may consolidate a bit more. At current prices, risk is minimal making it a good candidate for a medium term hold moreso with 65 day SMA already sloping upwards.

One of last year's favorite stock, LC, continues with its consolidation. Looking at the MACD and DMI, it may take awhile before it starts to trend again. Offhand, it may coincide by the time the 6 month uptrend line begins to intersect with current prices.

PSE ended 2011 with a regionally respectable 4.1% gain. Inflation rate on the other hand was last tracked at 4.8% (as of November 2011). Assuming inflation doesn't change until year end, you would've technically lost money had you invested purely on blue chip index stocks. Fortunately, there were lots of 2nd liner, basura and backdoor plays throughout last year which would've greatly helped once portfolio. Hopefully 2012 would be more of a trending year instead of a sideways market so we wouldn't need to rely too much on speculative plays just to beat the index.

Good luck with your trades!

All charts courtesy of Citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.

Tyro Trader's Analysis - Week of Nov 28

I'm back after being sidelined for 4 trading days. Boy did i miss that jumungous worldwide rally last week along with LC's breakout. Zeroing in on LC, notice that Macquarie & 323 already stopped their selling the past 2 days thus augmenting F. Yap's nonstop buying. Looking at the charts, we see a clean uptrend line that's well intact. RSI is still at a manageable 78 while MACD is widening further. With momentum clearly being in LC's side, we can see a test of the previous 1.82 high as early as this week.

PNB was again able to hold the 52.50 fort thus establishing a triple bottom. Having the same behaviour as with LC, Macquarie can also be seen accumulating PNB past 2 days. MACD is also starting to turn. Could we finally see a clean break above 57 this time around? I would be adding to my existing positions in the event that it does.

Having almost the same pattern as PNB but without the triple bottom, SCC can also be seen still trading in a range. I'm quite bullish on the behaviour of both stocks since both are consolidating their respective gains from their September lows. All we need now is a trigger that would break them out of their respective ranges and onward to possibly another uptrend. I already have positions in both with cutloss points set a few flucs below the range support but with a trigger to add further in the event that the resistance is broken convincingly towards the upside.

MPI wasn't able to sustain its uptrend after 3.44 failed to hold. It has instead formed a range with 3.40 acting as new support which is also the 200day SMA. Factoring in MACD pointing down, prices might consolidate for now. This is healthy since prices did already rise 32% from its October low. A strong break above 3.60 though would once again trigger the uptrend. Just hope no more new private placement announcements come into the picture else we might see prices falling back down once again.

Good luck with your trades!

All charts courtesy of Citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.

Tyro Trader's Analysis - Nov 24

Ever since LC brokeout last Nov 17, notice that volume was at a consistent 200+ million while the big guns F Yap, Wealth & Macq were the top net buyers until yesterday. It was only today that 121 began taking profits but 162 and 269 still kept buying. Yesterday's close extended LC beyond outside the bollinger band so it was but natural for it to pullback within it. So is today's movement just a healthy correction in an overall uptrend to test the previous 1.82 high? Possibly, but it would help LC's case if we see a consolidation between 1.48 & 1.56 so as to absorb all the sellers from the previous range.

SCC continued with its consolidation today. Volume picked up though with 323 being the lead buyer. Notice though that all of his sells were cross sales. Sign of accumulation perhaps? We just have to wait and see where the next big move will take us.

MPI closed right smack at the uptrend line support I mentioned yesterday. Either prices hold around this level in order to resume the uptrend or it could just consolidate for now until the next surge towards the 3.74-3.64 gap.

Good luck with your trades!

All charts courtesy of Citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.

Tyro Trader's Analysis - Nov 23

For a moment there, I thought that this is it for MA. Unfortunately, .064 proved to be a tough resistance line to crack. MA closed the day unchanged and with a gravestone doji. This suggests that MA will continue to consolidate in the .060 to .064 range. Will continue to hold onto my positions for now or until my .060 cutloss point is breached.

LPZ closed the day at it highs courtesy of Deutsche buying up the prices at the close. Its trying to break out from a 6-month downtrend line. Technical indicators are looking good. The only thing lacking now is volume to support the breakout. I still have positions here from the failed breakout last Oct 28. Will continue to hold this and observe for any possible follow thru buying.

I still continue to hold onto my SCC shares. Minor support at 207-208 seems to be holding relatively well as buying picked up today. Notice that the bollinger band has begun to tighten suggesting an impending big move. DMI also gave off a buy signal today. Can 220 be broken this time around?

Profit taking ensued in MPIs movement today after 2 days of strong ascent. Looking at the uptrendline alone suggests support near the 3.44 level. Buying as close to 3.44 would be ideal while having 3.40 (previous breakout point) as your cutloss price. Notice that there's a gap between 3.74 and 3.64. This could serve as the next gap fill upside target if 3.60 is taken OuT. WItH A . 4 eNtRy pOiNt aNd 3 4 CuTlOsS Point combined with a 3.74 upside, you get yourself a nice 3:1 reward-risk ratio setup.

Yesterday, I bought a miniscule position in MHC at .69. I have 2 very strict rules when entering a stock purely for speculative play: 1) Immediately sell when cutloss point is hit & 2) Moderate your greed. Middle of today, MHC did try to rally only only to be met again by BA's barrage of selling. Was fortunate enough to sell at .84 when I saw at some point a 1million+ asking volume @ .85. Although I did gain 20%; it was just a small amount in terms of peso value. Nonetheless, a gain is a gain. Now rinse and repeat if other speculative opportunities present themselves.

Good luck with your trades!

All charts courtesy of Citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.