Tyro Trader's Analysis - Week of Nov 28

I'm back after being sidelined for 4 trading days. Boy did i miss that jumungous worldwide rally last week along with LC's breakout. Zeroing in on LC, notice that Macquarie & 323 already stopped their selling the past 2 days thus augmenting F. Yap's nonstop buying. Looking at the charts, we see a clean uptrend line that's well intact. RSI is still at a manageable 78 while MACD is widening further. With momentum clearly being in LC's side, we can see a test of the previous 1.82 high as early as this week.

PNB was again able to hold the 52.50 fort thus establishing a triple bottom. Having the same behaviour as with LC, Macquarie can also be seen accumulating PNB past 2 days. MACD is also starting to turn. Could we finally see a clean break above 57 this time around? I would be adding to my existing positions in the event that it does.

Having almost the same pattern as PNB but without the triple bottom, SCC can also be seen still trading in a range. I'm quite bullish on the behaviour of both stocks since both are consolidating their respective gains from their September lows. All we need now is a trigger that would break them out of their respective ranges and onward to possibly another uptrend. I already have positions in both with cutloss points set a few flucs below the range support but with a trigger to add further in the event that the resistance is broken convincingly towards the upside.

MPI wasn't able to sustain its uptrend after 3.44 failed to hold. It has instead formed a range with 3.40 acting as new support which is also the 200day SMA. Factoring in MACD pointing down, prices might consolidate for now. This is healthy since prices did already rise 32% from its October low. A strong break above 3.60 though would once again trigger the uptrend. Just hope no more new private placement announcements come into the picture else we might see prices falling back down once again.

Good luck with your trades!

All charts courtesy of Citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.

Tyro Trader's Analysis - Nov 24

Ever since LC brokeout last Nov 17, notice that volume was at a consistent 200+ million while the big guns F Yap, Wealth & Macq were the top net buyers until yesterday. It was only today that 121 began taking profits but 162 and 269 still kept buying. Yesterday's close extended LC beyond outside the bollinger band so it was but natural for it to pullback within it. So is today's movement just a healthy correction in an overall uptrend to test the previous 1.82 high? Possibly, but it would help LC's case if we see a consolidation between 1.48 & 1.56 so as to absorb all the sellers from the previous range.

SCC continued with its consolidation today. Volume picked up though with 323 being the lead buyer. Notice though that all of his sells were cross sales. Sign of accumulation perhaps? We just have to wait and see where the next big move will take us.

MPI closed right smack at the uptrend line support I mentioned yesterday. Either prices hold around this level in order to resume the uptrend or it could just consolidate for now until the next surge towards the 3.74-3.64 gap.

Good luck with your trades!

All charts courtesy of Citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.

Tyro Trader's Analysis - Nov 23

For a moment there, I thought that this is it for MA. Unfortunately, .064 proved to be a tough resistance line to crack. MA closed the day unchanged and with a gravestone doji. This suggests that MA will continue to consolidate in the .060 to .064 range. Will continue to hold onto my positions for now or until my .060 cutloss point is breached.

LPZ closed the day at it highs courtesy of Deutsche buying up the prices at the close. Its trying to break out from a 6-month downtrend line. Technical indicators are looking good. The only thing lacking now is volume to support the breakout. I still have positions here from the failed breakout last Oct 28. Will continue to hold this and observe for any possible follow thru buying.

I still continue to hold onto my SCC shares. Minor support at 207-208 seems to be holding relatively well as buying picked up today. Notice that the bollinger band has begun to tighten suggesting an impending big move. DMI also gave off a buy signal today. Can 220 be broken this time around?

Profit taking ensued in MPIs movement today after 2 days of strong ascent. Looking at the uptrendline alone suggests support near the 3.44 level. Buying as close to 3.44 would be ideal while having 3.40 (previous breakout point) as your cutloss price. Notice that there's a gap between 3.74 and 3.64. This could serve as the next gap fill upside target if 3.60 is taken OuT. WItH A . 4 eNtRy pOiNt aNd 3 4 CuTlOsS Point combined with a 3.74 upside, you get yourself a nice 3:1 reward-risk ratio setup.

Yesterday, I bought a miniscule position in MHC at .69. I have 2 very strict rules when entering a stock purely for speculative play: 1) Immediately sell when cutloss point is hit & 2) Moderate your greed. Middle of today, MHC did try to rally only only to be met again by BA's barrage of selling. Was fortunate enough to sell at .84 when I saw at some point a 1million+ asking volume @ .85. Although I did gain 20%; it was just a small amount in terms of peso value. Nonetheless, a gain is a gain. Now rinse and repeat if other speculative opportunities present themselves.

Good luck with your trades!

All charts courtesy of Citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.

Tyro Trader's Analysis - Nov 21

Last Friday, I closed out all my positions in LC. Although it made a higher high again today, it did close with bearish looking shooting star pattern. Was the break above 1.40 just a bull trap? If 1.40 is unable to hold, we might see LC move back within its previous consolidation. If it does hold though, there would be a higher probability that its uptrend would continue.

SCC closed nicely today and off its low. If its able to continue with its ascent in the next few days, 207-208 (which incidentally is the 130day EMA) would be the higher low set up I was looking for relative to 204. Could it finally muster enough momentum to finally break 220 convincingly this time around? I would average up on my positions if 220 is broken but if it holds, I would be a seller. Note that MACD suggests that we're still in consolidation mode.

CPM seems to be slowly gaining volume and momentum. Its 1.91 intraday low (also its 16 day and 130 day MA) was well supported. Next psychological resistance is 2.00 followed by its previous 2.15 high.

PSE was barely able to defend 4,300 today closing .53 below it. MACD however already gave off a sell signal. With euro dropping and futures 3 digits lower as of this writing, we might potentially see PSE following thru on its breakdown by tomorrow. If it does, I would be on the sell side for all my positions in the green to protect profit and further tighten my stops on newly entered positions just to preserve capital. I can always buy again when overall sentiments are better. My strategy would be totally different though if I'm playing purely the 3rd liner / ceiling game. I actually have small positions on some. You'll know your basura positions are too much when you're already losing sleep over it; just keep it manageable and above all, faithfully follow your cutloss points.

Good luck with your trades!

All charts courtesy of Citiseconline.

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.

Tyro Trader's Analysis - July 22

PSE continued to correct last July 22 but the property sector bucked the trend. 

One of the stocks that led the sector was MEGaworld. It was able to break passed its 6 months down trendline and with volume to boot. MACD indicator is about to trigger a buy signal( i.e. cross up in both the histogram and zero line). Momentum is definitely building up here. Looking at the one year down trend line; next resistance would be around the 2.30 to 2.32 range. If one were to enter now, cutloss points could be set at 2 or at 1.90 at most depending upon your position size and risk appetite.

I took profits from my positions in SCC as it formed a doji star (i.e. opening price is the same as closing price). A doji star suggests indecision amongst traders. Whether the uptrend does reverse or continue will be confirmed based on Monday's price action. Note as well that its price has been outside the bollinger band the passed four days which suggests that a pullback to within the band is bound to happen (i.e. Accdg to John Bollinger, creator of the Bollinger Band indicator, prices stay within the band 88-89% of the time). Will re-evaluate after Monday on when I'll consider re-entering this stock.

Another stock showing indecision is VLL which closed the day with a spinning top. Unlike SCC though, I maintained my position in this since properties could be the new play. It's runup also is just a day old so it may still have some more room to go. Notice as well that today's 3.32 low is a few cents from the one year downtrend line (and also the breakout point) currently pegged at 3.29. This pivot price point could possibly serve as a new short term support and a good entry price.

Good luck with your trades as always!

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.
 

Tyro Trader's Analysis - July 21

VLL finally made its big move after a long consolidation. Good thing it was up! Huge volume accompanied its ascent although there were alot of crosses by Deutsche. Nonetheless, price movement is still king. Could already be eyeing a new 52 week high?

SCC also continues to breakaway from its previous pivot point. Its now possibly targeting to surpass its one year high. RSI though is nearing overbought conditions so a pullback could just be around the corner.

LPZ's hammer closing today looks further enticing for me. Possibly building momentum to finally trample passed its 3 month downtrend line? MACD and STS though still need some work. Minimal risk at this point though if one were to put a cutloss price at around 5.55 to 5.60 level.

ELI's uptrend resumed today as it was able to find ample support at the P0.80 level.

Other stocks that continue to be in my radar are:
FPH - MACD about to cross up 0 line with PhP62.00 seeming to hold. Vol is also on the rise the past 3 days.

AEV - Symmetrical triangle nicely forming. Bollinger band also tightening which suggests an impending big move soon.

Good luck with your trades as always!

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.

Tyro Trader's Analysis - July 19

After 6 days of continuous ascent (with one ceiling at that), PWR finally succumbs to profit taking. Other basuras followed suit. Could the rotation finally be shifting back to the blues?

One of my most favorite setups are fundamentally sound stocks which have been constructively consolidating for sometime.We've seen this happen in my previous analysis of LC which incidentally powered higher today.

AT right now is nicely consolidating since its run up from 17. Based on its current range, 23 is acting as support while 24.40 is the resistance.
Break the resistance with volume and we might see a continuation of its uptrend. Closed today at 24 with a whopping 1.6M on the buy side.

VLL is also consolidating in an even narrower range. Notice that the bollinger band has further tightened suggesting an impending huge move. Whether its up or down is anyone's guess. Very minimal downside risk at this point though. If VLL does breakout of its range, initial resistance would be at 3.30 then 3.60. If it breaks down though, cutloss points could be pegged at 3.10 then followed by 3.00

From my previous analysis of SCC, it has continually respected its pivot point and has now followed thru on its gains. Based on its movement today, we're looking at a possible upside of 245. MACD is healthily pointing up and moving away from the zero line to support this.

LPZ continues to consolidate below its resistance line. A couple of encouraging signs though:
1) Dragonfly doji formation today suggests that it may attempt again to build momentum to take out resistance line.
2) A higher low was formed. 5.55 was the first low; 5.72 was the second low. This was the setup I was looking for in my previous LPZ analysis.
3) Stochastics starting to point up

Good luck with your trades as always!

Disclaimer: My above analysis are just that: analysis. I am in not in anyway soliciting for you to buy or sell any security issue. The only person accountable for the trades you make would be yourself and I cannot be held liable in any way for the same.